Published: April 14, 2018
In recent months, President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Amazon exhibits monopolistic tendencies. The jury is out as to whether this is the case, but Amazon certainly monopolizes ecommerce news.
Published: October 23, 2017
Walmart's stock has risen over 25% in the last 6 months. This has been hugely surprising to analysts, with the company surging past most sell-side estimates. The retail giant has recently been facing several well-publicized headwinds, which seem to be having to bearing on its stock price. The...
Published: June 01, 2016
Top ranked SumZero investors recently predicted the crash of Valeant despite prominent hedge fund ownership. This time, award-winning investor and SumZero member Sid Choraria of APS Asset Management in Singapore has taken on hedge fund favorite JD.com, one of China's largest retail websites. Mr. ...
Published: October 23, 2015
Discovery is a niche content producer with a focus on non-fiction programming that is popular across cultures and countries. Its business model is unique in that it allows Discovery to leverage content produced for a given market on a global scale. Additionally, unlike many other media companies ...
Published: June 25, 2015
When Groupon went public, it was generating nearly all of its revenues through local coupons and deals. The company acted as a middleman by allowing merchants to offer special deals to its user base, achieving gross margins upwards of 80% in the process. However, this business model had very litt...
Published: June 05, 2015
SumZero asked Daniel Osowsky, long-time SumZero member and founder of Santa Monica based Osowsky Capital, to discuss his recent investment into retail giant Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY:US). Since Osowsky posted his long recommendation on SumZero in late 2014, the stock has appreciated a meaningful ...
Published: January 30, 2015
We are initiating coverage of Oracle Corporation with a BUY rating and a 24-month price target of $63. Oracle is a money machine that prints $1.2 billion in free cash flow per month. Oracle has an extremely valuable “razor and blades” business model, which is being substantially undervalued in it...
We don’t remember many newspaper executives in the mid‐‘90s insisting their businesses were about to crater. We suspect that several hundred years ago, scribes thought the demand for handwritten books would continue to last indefinitely and that the whole printing press thing wasn’t really a thre...
Published: April 30, 2014
Founded in December 2007, Two Fish Management, LLC is an options focused investment management firm that aims to provide excess risk-adjusted investment returns over conventional benchmarks through a variety of unique strategies for individuals, independent financial advisors, broker/dealers and ...
Published: April 07, 2014
These rapidly increasing costs are primarily due to the licensing fees required to maintain Netflix's expansive streaming content library. Netflix is in constant content-bidding wars with a number of other big name companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Outerwall (OUTR)...
Published: January 02, 2014
DirecTV's current valuation at 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 10x forward P/E is too pessimistic considering the potential of a US Cable M&A/consolidation trend, DTV's core advantages, aggressive buybacks and continued growth in Latin America/US. There is also a valuation gap to US cable peers which I think ...
Published: October 25, 2013
The more we dig into this company, the more red flags we find. In addition to competing the likes of EBay and Amazon—which is tough enough—the company has so many internal issues being ignored by investors that it's hard to understand why the market is pricing their stock at such a premium of 12x...
Published: October 04, 2013
Oracle is a great company at a great price. As management continues to return their $14bn in free cash flow to shareholders in the coming years the stock should re-rate materially higher. Attached is a write-up that is intended as a high-level overview of the company and discussion of why the sto...
Published: September 13, 2013
Special situation: merger between OMX and ODP enhances competitive position and unlocks value; deal risks overblown; Valuation obscured by "hidden" assets and "phantom" liabilities.
Published: August 15, 2013
It is important to understand what makes QVC such a structurally good business. Approximately 75% of the products sold on QVC are exclusive, reducing direct competition with other retailers. The use of on-air hosts to promote products engenders consumer trust and loyalty and is an effective way t...
Published: August 08, 2013
As a shareholder of Outerwall, Inc. (Nasdaq: OUTR) (the "Company"), we are very concerned about the Company's current direction. While the Company has seen EBITDA from its Redbox unit grow from roughly $50 mm in 2008 to over $400 mm expected in 2013, the Company's market capitalization has yet to...
Published: March 28, 2013
A confluence of potential events makes TIF an attractive short opportunity. If you think that any 3 of the following 6 catalysts will occur, consider shorting TIF. These include: Broad USD strength, Japanese economic shock, brand fatigue, European economic crisis, US market correction, or a China...
Published: March 21, 2013
BBBY is still growing, albeit at lower rates, maintaining superb margins to other retail competitors with seasoned management developed in-house and most importantly, generating a massive amount of free cash flow. It also boasts a remarkable track record of sound capital deployment with high retu...
Published: February 01, 2013
Let’s start with the base retail business. It reminds me of an old Saturday Night Live skit where a banker explains that his business plan is making change. ‘we’ll give you 5 nickels for your quarter. We can even give you ten pennies for your dime…How do we make money? Simple: Volume!’ Do you rem...
Published: January 24, 2013
Given the major headline risk that everyone is focused on, I really believe that the chances are high for some good unexpected surprises: a couple of new hit shows, a new streaming deal or partnership that will significantly accrue down to bottom line, or perhaps an acquisition offer.
Published: December 18, 2012
The dramatic and accelerating evolution of technology is, however, quickly turning the prospects of investing in a historically great business into something more akin to sleeping on top of a ticking time bomb. You don’t know when it’s going to go off, but sooner or later, it will. Owners of thes...
Published: December 11, 2012
Expedia is in the midst of a major acceleration from improving conversion rates as a result of its recent website and platform upgrade. We believe its key metric, hotel room night growth, is poised for acceleration on the back of the platform overhaul. The initial stages of the global platform mi...
Published: September 06, 2012
Most people in North America (my main audience) have a mobile phone and at the very least a vague sense of what Apple is. Therefore most people have an opinion on the mobile phone market. You mention Nokia and they recoil in horror. This vague notion of what the company does and the associated be...
Published: September 06, 2012
Facebook shares sank after BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon wrote that many advertisers appear to be reducing the amount of money they're spending on the website. Two out of every three advertisers contacted by Salmon divulged information that was negative for the stock, the analyst wrote.
Published: August 22, 2012
Since Third Point first disclosed its position in September 2011, three key overhangs in Yahoo! stock– lack of strategic direction, dysfunctional Board of Directors and unsubstantiated Alibaba valuation – have been addressed, two of which were the direct result of Third Point’s involvement (the s...
Published: June 20, 2012
I think investors have inaccurately assessed the massive transformation in the quality of DMD’s content and are irrationally concerned about DMD’s ability to adjust to the new Google algorithm. The growing page views, my checks with relevant parties and my own research have shown to me that they ...
Published: June 19, 2012
CBS has yet to license content for current running shows on CBS or Showtime (i.e., its most valuable content!). Translation: they are signing $100mm+ deals for content that is 20, 30, 40 years old in some cases. The stuff that is really valuable is the current show lineup, which could produce a t...