Published: May 17, 2018
As a deep value investor, Netflix sticks out like a sore thumb. Their valuations are incredibly high, I believe most of their performance has come from momentum and due in large part because they are grouped into the “FANG” stocks. Also, Netflix has serious liquidity issues stemming from their n...
Published: July 31, 2017
SiriusXM is crushing it. After last week's earnings report, the stock shot up over 8% to an all time high. While many analysts and stock pickers love SIRI for its strong management, wide moats, and continuing growth, Drew Estes, a portfolio manager at Banyan Capital Management, says investors oft...
Published: April 11, 2017
Unlike the vast majority of professional sports teams, the Atlanta Braves are not owned by a wealthy investor. The MLB team is owned by the Liberty Braves Group (NASDAQ:BATRK), a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corporation. As BATRK is a tracker stock, meaning the security only includes Liberty's own...
Published: October 23, 2015
Discovery is a niche content producer with a focus on non-fiction programming that is popular across cultures and countries. Its business model is unique in that it allows Discovery to leverage content produced for a given market on a global scale. Additionally, unlike many other media companies ...
Published: May 08, 2015
Investor in FOX can expect at least annual returns in the high teens through the end of the decade. The $80 price target present an estimated fair value of the shares 5 years from now. The returns is driven by at least a mid-teen net income growth combined with the return of excess cash to shareh...
Published: January 06, 2015
SumZero's <em>Best of 2014</em>, an annual report highlighting selected ideas submitted to the SumZero platform over the 2014 calendar year, is now available via the link below. This report features 17 exceptional pieces of research chosen from a pool of nearly 1,500 reports uploaded to the SumZe...
Published: September 26, 2014
In his excellent book, Deep Value, Tobias Carlisle notes the single most important factor in determining what Graham called “satisfactory returns” is not surprisingly, the price you pay: the lower the EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA multiple, the better the subsequent returns. In fact, revenue growth and ma...
We don’t remember many newspaper executives in the mid‐‘90s insisting their businesses were about to crater. We suspect that several hundred years ago, scribes thought the demand for handwritten books would continue to last indefinitely and that the whole printing press thing wasn’t really a thre...
Fantex essentially offers investors tracking stocks in the income earned by athletes and entertainers. The company plans to add to their asset roster in the near future (Bills quarterback EJ Manuel and Texans running back Arian Foster are scheduled to be next). Considering the true scale of incom...
Published: April 07, 2014
These rapidly increasing costs are primarily due to the licensing fees required to maintain Netflix's expansive streaming content library. Netflix is in constant content-bidding wars with a number of other big name companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Outerwall (OUTR)...
Published: February 07, 2014
With established brands that enjoy strong consumer recognition, Discovery's channels have become "go to" venues for nonfiction content. The company has kept fully distributed channels such as Discovery Channel and TLC fresh by continuously investing in new programming and updating existing conten...
Published: January 02, 2014
DirecTV's current valuation at 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 10x forward P/E is too pessimistic considering the potential of a US Cable M&A/consolidation trend, DTV's core advantages, aggressive buybacks and continued growth in Latin America/US. There is also a valuation gap to US cable peers which I think ...
Published: August 20, 2013
SumZero recently launched a new feature called SZ Compensation, which is a reciprocity-based database designed to help buysiders understand personal income trends within their industry. The new database is a fully-anonymized platform (the only such feature on SumZero) allowing buysiders to absorb...
Published: July 18, 2013
If CBS continues to take $1billion of its estimated 2billion in fcf generated each year to continue its accelerated share repurchase. To be conservative if I assume CBS uses half of the proceeds from the sale of the Outdoor business to repurchase shares. Assuming that shares are repurchased at $5...
Published: February 15, 2013
The shares have done well, but lagged some other major media and entertainment stocks over the past six months as the company endured a period of slow earnings growth. I believe the current quarter will flip the earnings trajectory and the stock will move higher with earnings and modest multiple ...
Published: January 24, 2013
Given the major headline risk that everyone is focused on, I really believe that the chances are high for some good unexpected surprises: a couple of new hit shows, a new streaming deal or partnership that will significantly accrue down to bottom line, or perhaps an acquisition offer.
Published: December 18, 2012
The dramatic and accelerating evolution of technology is, however, quickly turning the prospects of investing in a historically great business into something more akin to sleeping on top of a ticking time bomb. You don’t know when it’s going to go off, but sooner or later, it will. Owners of thes...
Published: December 13, 2012
We estimated that this current year (FYE June 2013) net additions will be approximately 50k and will turn negative from next year. There are 2 main reasons for this. First of all, we think the UK DTH market is very mature and near saturation. The second, and more important, reason is that competi...
Published: September 28, 2012
No industrial logic supports the continuation of CRWN as an independent company (or, technically, an affiliate of Hallmark Cards, Inc.). A sale of the Company to a larger cable programmer would result in immediate and significant cost savings as well as future revenue enhancements, value that sho...
Published: September 24, 2012
I am recommending a short position in Pandora. At the current valuation, by my estimates, the Company needs to grow its' audience by almost 300% and increase its' mobile pricing by 120% (desktop still grows at 25%). While it may be able to accomplish one or the other, I think it is unlikely that ...
Published: August 28, 2012
Sports teams are billionaire hobby toys. They are not rationally run businesses: the owners will fund large losses due to expensive player contracts to win. Acquiring marquee players is a hamster wheel, year after year after year. As a shareholder in MANU, you are signing up to compete with the s...
Published: August 16, 2012
What makes DreamWorks unique is its ability to increase its earnings power by leveraging its growing library. Every year that passes will mean that DreamWorks’ library of content will grow by 2-3 movies. And every year that passes will mean the margins generated from that revenue will increase as...
Published: June 20, 2012
I think investors have inaccurately assessed the massive transformation in the quality of DMD’s content and are irrationally concerned about DMD’s ability to adjust to the new Google algorithm. The growing page views, my checks with relevant parties and my own research have shown to me that they ...
Published: June 19, 2012
CBS has yet to license content for current running shows on CBS or Showtime (i.e., its most valuable content!). Translation: they are signing $100mm+ deals for content that is 20, 30, 40 years old in some cases. The stuff that is really valuable is the current show lineup, which could produce a t...
Published: June 18, 2012
With two sources of return: (1) the 25% potential fundamental return and (2) the possible return resulting from an LMCA takeout, SIRI a compelling buy.